Welcome to Chiraq: In Iraq, West Out, China In!
https://cfri-irak.com/en/article/welcome-to-chiraq-in-iraq-west-out-china-in-2024-06-28
As Iraq pivots away from Western influence, researcher Dr. Sardar Aziz analyses Iraq s strategic embrace of China, critically examining its emerging role as a pivotal partner for Iraq s development. He also raises considerations about the potential implications for Iraq s democratic institutions and transparency, particularly emphasising the challenges associated with over-reliance on China in shaping Iraq s future direction.
The relationship between China and Iraq is undergoing an unparalleled level of interconnection. Iraq is not only looking at the east but also embracing and making the east a model to emulate. A number of recent events in Iraq make this current trend in Iraqi politics evident. On May 26th, 2024, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani received Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Iraq, on the occasion of the conclusion of her tenure. On May 8, 2024, in a formal letter addressed to the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Al-Sudani called for “ending the mandate of the United Nations’s Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI) on December 31, 2025, emphasising that "after more than 20 years of democratic transition and overcoming great and diverse challenges, the justifications for a political mission in Iraq are no longer present." The UNAMI will be out soon. Its departure is a matter of time, as the German expert Volker Perthes highlights in his report on the independent strategic review of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq.
There are likely a number of reasons behind the ending of the UNAMI mission in Iraq, but one obvious effect is the ending of the Western gaze on Iraq and the actions of its elite. This push is framed as Iraq “regaining full sovereignty," as one of the PM’s many advisors put it. Iraq undoubtedly has issues with sovereignty; however, the UNAMI is scarcely among those that violate its sovereign rights. We have already discussed the effects of the Chinese paradigm and the Iraqi sovereignty syndrome. China is leading the international relations conversation on sovereignty more than any other country. In China, where the Chinese Communist Party rules the state, sovereignty is best described as unwavering, total power.
In tandem with these official politics, on the streets of Baghdad, another form of violent political activity is underway against the West, namely the recent attacks on KFC restaurants and other Western-associated symbols. This may be a signal for future increases in hostility toward Americans. Nevertheless, the attacks on (American) KFC and Chili House restaurants in Baghdad, seen as a soft target, symbolise a trend of political-economic shift in the country.
In accordance with these official and street politics, Muqtada Al-Sadr, who has turned into an agenda-setter in Iraqi politics, calls for the expulsion of Alina Romanowski, the U.S. Ambassador. Together, these actions demonstrate that western powers, symbols, representations, and institutions are all under pressure to leave the country.
In contrast, China is embraced by Iraq and its elites. China is not filling a vacuum, as some argue; it is the power that is chosen to do so. Where the West’s image has been tarnished, China’s image is being celebrated.
In the latest public meeting in Baghdad between Chinese Ambassador Cui Wei and Iraqi officials, the Sino-Iraqi bilateral relationship was characterised as strategic. Unlike the US-Iraqi relationship, the two sides complemented each another.
This is taking place on all fronts: from China’s dominance over the country's oil sector to Iraq’s total reliance on Chinese technology when it comes to telecommunication, as well as what is known as the ”New Three. The latter describes the shift that China’s exports have undergone from the “Old Three”, which includes household appliances, furniture, and clothing, to the high-tech “New Three”, comprised of electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells. Currently, Chinese cars are the trend in Iraq because they are good quality and are cheaper. Trends indicate that China will dominate the future as well. All together, these have shifted the focus on democracy and resulted in the emergence of development discourse.
As Iraqi media reports, there are currently more than 200 projects between the two countries awaiting approval by the PM as part of the ‘oil for construction’ strategic agreement, under which Iraq will supply China with 150,000 barrels of oil daily. This vast array of projects will further intertwine Iraq and China in all aspects.
In addition to these factors, prevailing Iraqi elites have ideological and emotional affiliations with China. For some prominent Iraqi politicians, China and its model present “historic opportunities for development in Iraq." This development pathway is not possible under the Western model, as it “tore the world apart and usurped developing countries' wealth to establish a modern, developed core surrounded by the ruins of impoverished and fractured nations." Therefore, the relationship is deeper than infrastructure development. The Shia elites in Iraq perceive China and Maoism as a way to combine tradition (religion) and development. This worldview has its roots in the works of one of the most sinophile Iraqi thinkers, known as Hadi al-`Alawi’.
For him, it is only through the “indigenisation” of communism (masha‘iyya), implying a sustained engagement with popular folklore and heritage, that the “ethical” basis of the communist tradition could be reclaimed and an egalitarian order, predicated on the spiritual essence (not in the religious sense) of a society, realised. This is possible in the Chinese model rather than the western model.
How does China shape Iraq’s future?
Future ties between Baghdad and Beijing are being shaped by oil, the political system, and the economy. As the latest oil bid unfolded, Iraq's dependence on oil has continued to increase. Last month, the Ministry of Oil launched oil and gas licensing for 29 fields and exploration blocks in the central, southern, and western regions of Iraq. Both the high number of fields and government attempts to distribute the fields among provinces showed that Iraq will continue to depend on oil as its main source of income in the future.
While it was only successful in 13 oil fields and no gas fields, the high number shows that the country is aiming to drill for more oil and gas and continue to depend on oil as the main source of income, i.e., maintain the single-income economy. China will be at the heart of this project which may result in economic, market, and other types of dependency.
This dependency on the current favourable oil market conditions has supported Iraq’s fiscal position. According to the World Bank country report, Iraq's budgetary position has been sustained by its reliance on the present favourable conditions in the oil market. Nevertheless, the structural imbalances continue to widen. While the World Bank suggests a tighter fiscal policy, the government is unable and unwilling to implement one, not only because the country might be heading toward an election next year, but also for many political, social, and elite-related factors. In fact, the current government is increasing the number of public employees and continuing the rentier economic style. This low appetite for reforms, even amidst decreasing oil prices, would do little to reduce public sector dominance and increase non-oil growth potential and job creation, thereby constraining long-term economic growth prospects.
Not only does oil invite China and lay the groundwork for its expansion into other regions, but the factor of wounded Iraqi pride, in addition to the allure of the Chinese model, creates circumstances that increasingly bind the two countries together. This situation helps China secure its energy flow while providing Iraq with income and affordable goods. However, this scenario also leaves Iraq without the option to decouple, de-risk, or end the relationship. While this dynamic maintains the current status quo, it weakens democracy, rule of law, transparency, and the prospect of change. Hence, we can talk about Chiraq (China and Iraq).
The CFRI does not take collective positions. Its publications only represent the views of their individual authors.
To cite this article : Sardar Aziz, "Welcome to Chiraq: In Iraq, West Out, China In!", Centre Français de recherche sur l'Irak (CFRI), 28/06/2024, [https://cfri-irak.com/en/article/welcome-to-chiraq-in-iraq-west-out-china-in-2024-06-28]